Putin is left with no options as Ukraine disrupts Russia's plans in Transnistria.

On January 15, the president of the unrecognized "Transnistrian Moldovan Republic," Vadim Krasnoselsky, following negotiations at the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation stated that "Gazprom" will resume gas supplies "in the format of humanitarian and technical assistance."

However, he did not specify a date for the start of gas supplies from Russia. "Discussions about the technical aspects of the resumption of gas supplies are still ongoing," he said.

As previously reported, since January 1, "Gazprom" has halted gas supplies, leaving the unrecognized "PMR" on the brink of bankruptcy.

Ukraine says - we will negotiate only with Moldova

For Russian gas to reach Moldova, it must cross the territory of Ukraine. There is no other route.

The gas supply route to Moldova bypassing Ukraine through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania still crosses the territory of Ukraine twice in the Odessa region on the way to Tiraspol (the capital of the unrecognized "PMR").

However, as is well known, Ukraine has stopped the transit of Russian gas and does not intend to resume it. "I believe that the transit of Russian gas is completely unacceptable," — said the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andrey Sibiga, in response to journalists' questions about the possibility of transit through Ukraine to the so-called "PMR."

In this regard, "Telegraph" asked the Operator of the Gas Transport System of Ukraine (OGTSU) to comment on the possibility of resuming Russian gas supplies to Moldova, as well as the potential routes, volumes, and legal aspects of the supplies.

As of today, there are two gas transportation routes through the Ukrainian gas transport system to the Republic of Moldova, the OGTSU explained in an official response to "Telegraph's" request.

Route No. 1 is possible from entry points on the western border of Ukraine with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to exit points in Moldova in reverse mode (from west to east): Grebeniki and Alekseevka. The available free capacities of this route can fully meet the demand of the Republic of Moldova (including the Transnistrian region), the OGTSU assured.

Route No. 2 is possible from entry points from Romania (in reverse mode from southwest to east) Isakcha/Orlovka-1 to the exit point in Moldova, Kaushany. There are free capacities on this route that will also completely meet the demand of the Republic of Moldova (including the Transnistrian region).

Is it theoretically possible to supply gas to Moldova from Europe? The OGTSU clarified that route No. 1 opens access to gas resources from Central European gas hubs, LNG terminals in Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Croatia, Norwegian production, etc. Route No. 2 allows gas to be transported from Southern European hubs, particularly from Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Greek and Turkish LNG terminals, Azerbaijan (via the ICGB pipeline), etc.

"We cannot comment on the routes for potential gas supplies to the Transnistrian region. The Operator of the Gas Transport System of Ukraine interacts at all interstate connection points on the Ukraine-Moldova border with the Moldovan gas transport operator, Vestmoldtransgaz," the OGTSU stated in response to questions about the possible supplies of "humanitarian gas" by Gazprom to the Transnistrian region of Moldova.

At the same time, the operator clarified that the OGTSU provides access to capacity at all connection points where an interaction agreement has been concluded with the adjacent operator, particularly at the entry point Isakcha/Orlovka-1.

The OGTSU believes that "the route from the entry point Isakcha/Orlovka-1 to Kaushany can be used to transport gas from Southern Europe to the Republic of Moldova, and any customer with a valid transportation contract and fulfilling all necessary conditions of the current contract can access this capacity."

Thus, "Gazprom," which has not had a contract for gas transit through the territory of Ukraine since January 1, evidently cannot access the Ukrainian gas transport system, and therefore cannot independently deliver gas to the so-called "PMR." However, there is currently a contract between the OGTSU operator and the Moldovan gas transport operator — Vestmoldtransgaz. This means that there is a legal basis for delivering gas across the territory of Ukraine to Moldova, held by Vestmoldtransgaz.

Ukraine's position will thwart Russian plans to destabilize Moldova

The position of the Operator of the Gas Transport System of Ukraine effectively undermines Russia's plan to influence the political situation in Moldova, particularly regarding the parliamentary elections, by using an artificially created gas shortage and energy crisis. The plan, according to Moldovan sources, consisted of three stages. The first stage – stopping gas supplies, supposedly due to Chisinau's unwillingness to pay its debts.

The second stage – an energy crisis on both banks of the Dniester, escalating into a humanitarian disaster in the Transnistrian region. The third stage of the plan – Putin appears on the horizon, dressed in white, to save his supporters in the separatist enclave by supplying humanitarian gas (those who remember, a similar scheme with "white" humanitarian convoys was implemented by Russia in Donbas in 2014 – ed.).

To implement this plan, Putin needed to organize the supply of "humanitarian gas" directly without Chisinau's involvement to the Transnistrian region, as was done with the delivery of "humanitarian convoys" to Donetsk, Ukraine. Thus, the population of Moldova was fed the thesis – stay with Russia, and you will have cheap gas (electricity, heat, etc.), because "Moscow does not abandon its own."

That is why "Gazprom," one of the world's largest gas producers, suddenly began discussing the possibility of purchasing it for the so-called "PMR" on the European market. This is, in particular, necessary to eliminate contacts between Russian "Gazprom" and Ukraine.

However, in its response to "Telegraph's" request, the OGTSU clearly indicated that for gas supplies to the pro-Russian "PMR," Russia must negotiate with the constitutional authorities of Moldova. Such conditions for the Russians are created by Ukraine's position. This completely refutes the thesis that the Russian Federation is capable of independently helping its supporters in the enclave.

Does Gazprom have no options?

"Telegraph" asked Moldovan energy experts to comment on the possibility of "Gazprom" resuming gas supplies to the Transnistrian region of Moldova.

"There is a technical possibility for gas supplies through the Trans-Balkan pipeline to Moldova for "Gazprom," — said Sergiu Tofilat, a former advisor to the President of the Republic of Moldova in the energy sector and one of the authors of the report on Russia's financing of the separatist enclave, to "Telegraph." He explained that two gas pipelines connect Russia and Turkey – the Turkish Stream and the Blue Stream (see the map above – Ed.). The Turkish Stream is occupied with gas supplies to Serbia and Hungary. There are no free capacities. But gas supplies to Moldova are possible through the Blue Stream. It connects to the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline at the Stranja-1 gas measuring station, where there is more than enough capacity (for gas supplies to Moldova – ed.). "If there is a desire," — believes Sergiu Tofilat.

However, with this option for gas transportation, "Gazprom" will need to negotiate with Ukraine, he clarified.

"If gas is supplied in reverse mode through the Orlovka gas measuring station (Odessa region – ed.), I do not rule out that transit will be possible, provided that a third-party company will pay for it at the request of "Gazprom," — suggested Sergey Tofilat. "It's the Russians' problem how to deliver gas to the border of Moldova," — he said.

Commenting on the cost of the so-called "humanitarian gas," the Moldovan expert stated that according to the contract, "Gazprom" is obliged to deliver gas to the border of the Republic of Moldova, thereby taking on all transportation costs. Otherwise, "Gazprom" must propose changes to the contract (it is worth noting that by suspending gas supplies to the Transnistrian region of Moldova, "Gazprom" did not terminate the long-term gas supply contract with the company Moldovagaz).

Humanitarian gas will not save the "PMR" from bankruptcy

According to Sergiu Tofilat, it is still unknown what volume of "humanitarian gas" Russia intends to supply to the Transnistrian region. At the same time, Sergiu Tofilat suggested that the "humanitarian gas" that Gazprom plans to supply to Moldova will likely only be sufficient for the needs of the population and electricity