A report from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has circulated on social media and in the media, stating that the IDF has launched a new strike on Syrian equipment and armament at the port of Tartus. It is claimed that the main targets were air defense systems and operational-tactical missiles, and the explosion was so powerful that it caused a minor earthquake with a magnitude of 3 on the Richter scale.
The nuance of the situation is that some Russian ships are still stationed at (for now) their base in Tartus, while Israel conducts its campaign to bomb Syria's military capabilities without any restrictions.
OSINT analyst MT_Anderson shared a new satellite image of the Tartus base area on his Twitter profile, taken on the morning of December 15, 2024. Despite low cloud cover, at least two Russian Navy ships can be identified – the frigate "Admiral Gorshkov" from the Northern Fleet and "Admiral Grigorovich" from the Black Sea Fleet.
It is noteworthy that the "Gorshkov" is positioned 15 kilometers away from the nearest pier, indicating that the Russians were forced to move their particularly valuable ships further away from the potential strike zone of the IDF.
Additionally, it is emphasized that, at this moment, Russian ships have not been spotted in the Libyan port of Tobruk, which is considered a likely point for a new Russian Navy base in the Mediterranean if the Kremlin has to abandon Tartus, which has been in operation since 1971.
Another nuance of the situation is that this was already a repeated strike by Israel on Syrian Tartus, which the Russians had to be wary of in this area. On December 10, 2024, there was already a report that Israel had bombed the base in Tartus, where Russian ships may still be anchored.
For the Russians, the situation also appears specific in terms of evacuation from another strategically important point in Syria, namely the Khmeimim airbase. A rather telling video has emerged on social media, showing the takeoff of a transport aircraft Il-76 under the "escort" of a Ka-52 helicopter patrolling the area around the airfield.
A similar format of actions was used, for example, by Soviet troops in Afghanistan when it was necessary to cover transport aircraft during takeoff from potential MANPADS attacks. In this context, it should be noted that the pace of evacuation of Russian military personnel from Syria depends not only on the available air transport but also on security measures.
At this moment, we can also confirm the emergence of a new report from the GUR MOU, which states that currently, the Russians have involved a total of three Il-76MD and two An-124-100 for evacuation from Syria.