The authoritative British analytical center RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) in its new report also mentioned the aspect of long-range strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, which we previously referenced in one of our earlier publications.
In this regard, we want to highlight a fundamental point – the authors of the institution state that by 2025, Russia aims to produce 750 ballistic missiles 9M723 for the Iskander missile system and 560 air-launched cruise missiles X-101. However, their reference to "statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense" raises concerns, as such data has not been published by the Russian authorities.
We will provide a link to this report again. Furthermore, we emphasize that a basic question arises regarding how many missiles the Russians intend to produce this current year. Through simple calculations, we can derive the following picture – for the X-101, the expected average rate is 46 units per month, indicating a maintenance of the current production pace.
In contrast, for the ballistic missiles 9M723 for the Iskander missile system, the expected average rate is 62 units per month, which is nearly 25% higher than the production rate of 50 units per month as of December 2024, based on estimates from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
Moreover, the authors of RUSI note that the Russians are trying to complicate the X-101 missiles by adding features such as thermal traps to counter MANPADS, as well as improving onboard electronics for more accurate targeting, and also installing warheads with cluster munitions.
It is also noted that the Russians have begun to demonstrate better preparedness for executing mass missile strikes, for instance, by plotting flight paths for cruise missiles to avoid entering the range of our electronic warfare systems. Additionally, it has been observed that these enemy missile strikes have started to inflict more damage on our critical infrastructure.
At the same time, the authors of RUSI were somewhat surprised by the comparison that the restoration of anti-aircraft missile stocks for Ukraine's air defense is as costly as restoring damaged infrastructure.
However, in the section of the report concerning conclusions and recommendations, the authors state directly that NATO countries need to work on developing "a more competitive air defense and aviation." Essentially acknowledging that currently, the aviation and air defense of the Alliance member states are not capable of countering the Russians under the same conditions as those occurring in the course of the full-scale war waged by Russia against Ukraine.
Additionally, in the mentioned section of the reports, attention is drawn to the recommendation for Western partners to create new countermeasures that would help at least reduce the intensity of Russian guided aerial bombs being dropped on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front.